Are the Labour Party turning into shapeshifters and stealing Tory and Reform’s clothes? The risk for the opposition is that Labour may not only do what they say, but also become popular with the general population, even if parts of their own party are dead against it.
After a difficult first year in power with Rachel Reeves accused of deflating the economy with her ascetic budget Labour seemed to have changed tack to meet their growth manifesto commitment. he chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has suggested that economic growth trumps the government’s legally binding target of reaching net zero emissions by 2050, It is no longer both, no longer sustainable, it’s now either or.
The two triggers are the perilous state of the economy risking the future of the manifesto, and Donald Trump returning to power in the USA, throwing away the Liberal progressive rule book in favour of his own populist nationalist no-hole barred naked power.
Suddenly Starmer is reacting to this new Western Order in a particular way that even some in his party are struggling to keep up with.
Let’s first go back and look at that Labour party manifesto and what has happened to it.
- Economic growth through green energy has changed to economic growth at the expense of climate and nature – check Heathrow Airport third runway expansion
- Significant increase NHS funding – closure of NHS England to find the funding.
- Commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2030 through massive investment in renewable energy. This was the first casualty when the budget was cut.
- 1.5 million new affordable homes over the next decade. The Tories failed at housing reform but for Labour to realise this they have vowed to change planning rules to deprioritise nature. This will cause rifts in the party with their green lobby as the green belt will take a hit.
The Trump effect has manifested in new ways. With Starmer referring to the Civil Service as “flabby”, with job cuts planned, this is unprecedented, even Thatcher struggled with the blob. The need to find money for the armed forces – another Trump effect, has led to Starmer announcing a huge cut to the benefits bill. Talking about shifting the unemployed into work is Tory territory not Labour and is already causing rebellions around disability benefits.
Starmer’s blueprint for reforming the state, which includes a bonfire of the quangos and the slashing of Civil Service jobs, while ramping up the use of efficiency-driving tech, is clearly influenced by Musk’s Doge. The impact of this is an uptick in Starmer’s ratings.
So where next with the Tories? They will need to hold Labour to account. Kemi Badenoch will need to up her game to carve a different Tory plan. Labour is already ploughing on with its challenge on the Sentencing Council’s announcement of its ‘two-tier’ guidance – this smacks of another Trump effect with the push back on DEI initiatives.
There are still many areas that Labour is still in the grip of progressivism such as its muted behaviour with progressivism in the NHS, Education and Police forces. The response to the key election issue last year of uncontrolled immigration also remains lacking. This could cost them votes at a future election, but for now it is about avoiding a recession.
