New struggles, new issues, new alliances. Recent events by Trump have sent a rocket through global assumptions held together by the enduring peace that has enabled global institutions like NATO and the UN to thrive. The perception of a world rules-based system and traditional alliances was probably no more than straw houses.
Trump has a couple of strategies from the commerce world that he has brought to political diplomacy. Firstly, it is to go with an extreme threat, in the belief that this will frighten the other party into making a better offer than just through negotiating. Secondly, he behaves like everything has a price. But, in recent events, his approach has become one of using raw power to gain power, land and materials – take Venezuela.
Europe is emasculated
European politicians have taken the view that everything’s changed – the press have made much of Carney’s speech at Davos, echoed by Zelensky. The talk is of increasing defence, no longer relying on the USA. Yet the political union is heavily compromised by the differing views of nations from Hungary to France, making it weak as a global political bloc.
Yet the EU still needs the USA for its role in NATO; the USA is why Ukraine has not collapsed. Not yet – Trump has said it is not worth America defending territory it does not fully possess. The attempt at a ‘coalition of the willing’ has not delivered the goods. And so its dependency on the USA continues.
But the moment Trump turned Europe from an ally to a vulnerable, weak competitor to bully and threaten to use tariffs was the moment appeasement was no longer an option.
Trump making a threat to a joint NATO country – Denmark – to invade Greenland has pulled the rug right out from the purpose and strength of NATO. NATO may never be a thing again until Trump moves on.
Where now for the UK
The UK has to look elsewhere for collaboration; it can no longer rely on the USA. It should look to the EU for selective collaboration (economic and security). We already have Starmer making new trade alliances with China, however much we define them as a risk. A close trade deal will reduce our dependency on the USA. The reality is that the UK also needs to ramp up its defence capabilities.
Last days of Trump
We are now in a world where the USA, run by Trump, is no longer a military ally, our political ally, or our economic ally. His aggression and petulance (attacking allies about Afghanistan) means he is losing friends quickly. His board of peace is little more than smaller nations who want to keep him onside.
His liberation day tariffs show he eventually chickens out; he has backed down from most. He threatened to save Iranians, then pretended the Ayatollah had stopped killing people. We are still waiting for him to follow up on his threat to take over Canada.
The USA under Trump has massive internal issues. Its political system is polarising. His personal militia – ICE – has become a burden. Politicians have a habit of looking abroad for statesmanship when the problems are on their own doorstep. So he has pivoted to imperialism, geographically around the USA, turning away from the Western Alliance.
The demise of the United Nations (due to Trump) is also a grave concern in terms of what happens in the world with future civil and inter-country wars.
New struggles
There are wider global issues here. For instance, Trump may pull out of Ukraine, which would cripple the EU’s efforts to prop up Ukraine. China may take the view that if Trump wants to take over Greenland, then it is not going to intervene if China decides to invade Taiwan. Trump may move on to Canada, as it knows that it can financially cripple the country. For the UK, we are dependent on the USA for our economic growth including using AI, Trump could weaponise this as it has with tariffs.
